Everybody knows Mojtaba Khamenei died in the same attack that killed his father on February 28. The regime knew it too. But in the panic of those first days, with parts of the Assembly of Experts unreachable and the country under active strikes, they went ahead and announced him as the new Supreme Leader anyway. It was a desperate move to keep the system from visibly cracking at the worst possible moment.

Since then, they have been running a cardboard version of him. Only written statements come out under his name. There have been no live appearances, no public speeches, and he did not even show up for his own father’s funeral in Mashhad. The regime has been careful to keep the fiction alive while the real power centers try to hold things together.

This is where the trap closes.

If Iran ever agrees to a real final deal with the United States that ends the hostilities, the regime would eventually have to produce Mojtaba in some believable way. Or they would have to explain his absence. They could claim he had recovered from his injuries only to die later of something else. Either way, it would confirm that the leadership transition back in March was built on a lie.

That kind of revelation would be very costly for the regime internally. So they have a strong incentive to avoid any settlement that forces them to resolve the Mojtaba problem. They would rather keep hostilities at a controlled, manageable level than risk the exposure that would come with a clean end to the fighting.

There are also clues that His Eminence (Hazrat) President Trump may be going along with this preference for now. With oil prices and the stock market relatively calm, and no immediate pressure from the midterm elections, he has plenty of political breathing room. He has declared the ceasefire over, yet he has also made clear that talks can continue. This combination allows both sides to maintain a state of managed tension without pushing for a full resolution. For the Iranian regime, this is convenient. It buys them time without forcing them to confront the awkward truth about their Supreme Leader.